solid analysis but i think you're missing the logical endpoint here: this doesn't end with companies "relearning scarcity"... it ends with the permanent contractor-ification of various types of work at these tech companies (not just tech roles, but other types of roles at these companies). already, contractor-to-employee ratio has gotten higher and higher at these companies in recent years and I expect this to continue.

ZIRP (especially the "double tap" ZIRP in 2021/2022) created this monster (bootcamp devs getting hired, big tech devs making "day in the life of" tiktok vids).

contractors give:

instant scale up/down without layoff optics

no benefits overhead

no severance obligations

easy performance management (just don't renew)

this mirrors what other industries typically do after large restructuring waves ... manufacturing got temp agencies and staffing firms as permanent fixtures post-rust belt collapse. tech is just catching up to the same playbook.