| ▲ | aurareturn 4 hours ago | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
In my humble opinion, China taking Taiwan, if done under Trump, will be the market buying event of the century. It will tank the markets because people will assume a depression-level event and WW3. But Trump isn't like other presidents. He'll make a deal with China. And finally, the China/Taiwan cloud over the markets will go away for good and countries can start trading freely with China again. Markets will severely over react initially. I can see TSMC benefiting hugely from this long term, as long as the reunification is peaceful no damage to any TSMC fabs or people. The reason is because TSMC will most likely be forced to open up to both Chinese and US customers. Right now, they can't serve the world's second largest market. Nearly half of their customers can't use them. I'm making these assumptions: 1. China won't use force (or very very little) to take Taiwan. 2. There won't be WW3 that will come out of this. You'd have to be an idiot to think that Americans will die defending Taiwan or that Europe will send troops when China is quickly becoming their biggest trading partners and US has shown they're susceptible to annexing Greenland. 3. China will operate 1 country 2 system long term with Taiwan. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | CMay 3 hours ago | parent [-] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1. I generally agree that China has a better chance with hybrid tactics that escalate in ways that meter western response, but Taiwan can force escalation too once it reaches a threshold and it would be within its right to. 2. If Russia, North Korea, South Korea and Japan join in there is a lot of potential for it to scale up. Whether it would become an all out horrific war like a World War or stay a little bottled up, it does risk becoming a huge conflict. Many Americans love South Korea and Japan, though they're less informed about Taiwanese. If South Koreans and Japanese are dying, we will be involved in one way or another. 3. No it won't. Look at what happened with Hong Kong, it broke its promise, just like the CCP breaks many of its promises. Not sure how bad they are compared to Russia in that regard, but it's pretty bad. Besides, if China wants to expand the way it seems like they want to, they need to take Taiwan so I doubt they would slow roll it. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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