This rule didn't hold in Israel in the last 3 years. Well over 3.5% went to the streets and the government remains in tact.

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terminalshort 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

What do you mean by "went to the streets?" If it's just show up at a protest and wave a sign on Saturday and Sunday, and go back to work on Monday, that's not enough. That's not civil resistance. People seriously underestimate the commitment levels necessary to actually matter.

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eli_gottlieb 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Blocking highways, labor strikes, conscription refusal, and other civil-disobedience tactics were used.

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gverrilla an hour ago | parent [-]

Sorry but not enough.

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worthless-trash an hour ago | parent [-]

I agree annoying the population, not those in power does nothing.

I am so tired of middle east protests ( on both sides) in my city i'd be happy if every protester was destroyed and traffic returned to normal.

Their actions don't influence any behaviour from australia, especially the locations where they protest.

	▲	pastage 20 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		How are you going to get stuff done unless you try to get your opinion heard? I feel we should ban social media and phones, it is a mistake. People stop caring about the things that happens near them.

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smallerize 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It doesn't work if the opposition is also organized. For example, a March 2003 Gallup poll showed that 5% of the US population had made a public opposition to the Iraq war, but 21% had made a public display to support the war. Small minorities can't go directly against more popular movements.

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AnotherGoodName 7 hours ago | parent [-]

I agree that's what it's saying but it does make the whole statement a bit meaningless.

Essentially the statement is 3.5% succeed unless there's meaningful opposition.

	▲	xboxnolifes 7 hours ago \| parent [-]
		It's not meaningless, as there is a difference between opposition and status quo.

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stevenwoo 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

So far, if estimates are accurate, neither in Iran with 90 million population, more than five percent turned out.

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pedalpete 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I have no idea how many Iranians have been involved in the protests, but it seems like they're getting past the 3.5% number as well..

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steve-atx-7600 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Peaceful protests do not work when the government that you are opposing shoots protesters in the street and/or jails & tortures them. Didn’t work so well in Syria either. Only the government has guns in Iran and they’d rather rule over a hellish cesspool of their own countrymen starving and drying than lose power.

	▲	eli_gottlieb 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		And quite relevantly to the analogy, in Iran, the regime controls most of the economic links to the outside world, including the ability to convert the rial to dollars or euros.

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conception 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Paper says non-violent is ~50/50 vs one in four for violent. So not a sure thing.

	▲	erxam 7 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		The problem is defining 'non-violent'. Is it just showing up to a protest from 5pm to 6pm with a sign? Is it a general strike that will undoubtedly harm the economy? Is it demonstrating that you could respond to violence effectively and daring them to up the scales?
	▲	stevenwoo 7 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		So there were 323 events investigated but there's some criteria that should be taken into account for violent resistances that is not - for instance zero of the resistances to the Nazi occupations during World War 2 succeeded by their definition, and off the top of my head only the Yugoslavian resistance really put up a substantial dent in the occupation and still required the Soviet army invasion to kick the Nazis out.

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midlander 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The rule doesn’t really make sense in a small country with proportional representation. The government can stay in power as long as a majority of the country wants it to stay in power.

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alephnerd 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> This rule didn't hold in Israel [...]

It did (ie. Revolutionary thresholds) until 10/7 and Hezbollah's shelling of the north changed the calculus.

There was increased pressure from senior IDF careerists, industry titans, and intelligence alums (oftentimes the 3 were the same) against the government's judicial reforms which was about to reach the tip over point (eg. threats of capital outflows, leaking dirty laundry, corporate shutdowns/wildcat strikes, and resignations of extremely senior careerists), but then 10/7 happened along with the mass evacuation of the North, which led everyone to set aside their differences.

Israel is a small country (same population and size as the Bay Area) so everyone either knows someone or was personally affected by the southern massacre or the northern evacuation.

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eli_gottlieb 6 hours ago | parent [-]

More to the point, despite your downvoters, the judicial reform did not pass as proposed.

	▲	alephnerd 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		> despite your downvoters It's because I called 10/7 a massacre, which it was. > the judicial reform did not pass as proposed. Yep. Exactly.

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erxam 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

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andrepd 7 hours ago | parent [-]

[flagged]

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erxam 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Let's be real, the number of anti-Zionist Jews is vanishingly small and usually consists of only vaguely ethnic Jews who have been completely assimilated into the society they live in, whose only remaining distinguishing feature is one or two members of their family. It's so distant they wouldn't be accepted into Israel under the remigration laws or whatever it's called.

Also, funny you bring up Evangelicals. I've had this same sort of argument brought up when they do some awful shit and are called out for it. "But we don't all believe/do this!" It's implicit in the very core of your religion/ideology. If you truly didn't agree with what they did, you wouldn't be one. Evangelicalism is a plague and should be treated like one. Evangelicals should be sent to quarantine centers and deprogrammed (if possible).

	▲	ecshafer 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		You don't know what Evangelicalism is, since there are multiple forms of Evangelicalism. Its a Christian Cross-denominational protestant movement, not all protestants or evangelicals are fundamentalists nor do they all support Israel. But you seem to be against religion at large, or perhaps anti-western civilization.