I don't think it matters very much. It's not a matter of "if" but of "when": one is consistently getting worse, and the other is measurably getting better and more compatible with the former. Unless of a drastic paradigm change, Linux will see more and more users. Trump dismantling of the global system of trade might also add another nail to this coffin (the recent talk by Cory Doctorow at CCC gives a good picture of how and why).

Actually you might be right.

I'm always open to being wrong. At a minimum European governments should switch to a Linux distro based in Europe like Open Suse.

I don't believe this is going to be enough of a dramatic shift where Microsoft would see it worth while to try and shutdown WINE.

This is a good thing though, if Microsoft really wanted to they could sue WINE. Even if WINE isn't doing anything wrong, Microsoft could easily make things really difficult.

We saw this with Nintendo and the Switch emulators.

Maybe I came across as a bit harsh, I run multiple Linux computers, I just can't see this being a realistic concern for Microsoft