100% correct in the first part, though I'd like to think there's a bimodal effect with AI users and usage.

Hard working expert users, leveraging AI as an exoskeleton and who carefully review the outputs, are getting way more done and are stronger humans. This is true with code, writing, and media.

People using AI as an easy button are becoming weaker. They're becoming less involved, less attentive, weaker critical thinkers.

I have to think that over some time span this is going to matter immensely. Expert AI users are going to displace non-AI users, and poor AI users are going to be filtered at the bottom. So long as these systems require humans, anyway.

Personally speaking:

My output in code has easily doubled. I carefully review everything and still write most stuff by hand. I'm a serious engineer who built and maintained billion dollar transaction volume systems. Distributed systems, active active, five+ nines SLA. I'm finding these tools immensely valuable.

My output in design is 100% net new. I wasn't able to do this before. Now I can spin up websites and marketing graphics. That's insane.

I made films and media the old fashioned way as a hobby. Now I'm making lots of it and constantly. It's 30x'd my output.

I'm also making 3D characters and rigging them for previz and as stand-ins. I could never do that before either.

I'm still not using LLMs to help my writing, but eventually I might. I do use it as a thesaurus occasionally or to look up better idioms on rare occasion.

I have observed this with students. Some use AI to really extend their capabilities and learn more, others become lazy and end up learning less than if they hadn't used AI.