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TacticalCoder 5 hours ago

> This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI

Actually "technical analysis" (TA) has a very specific meaning in trading: TA is using past prices, volume of trading and price movements to, hopefully, give probabilities about future price moves.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis

But TFA doesn't do that at all: it goes in detail into one pricing model formula/method for options pricing. In the typical options pricing model all you're using is current price (of the underlying, say NVDA), strike price (of the option), expiration date, current interest rate and IV (implied volatility: influenced by recent price movements but independently of any technical analysis).

Be it Black-Scholes-Merton (european-style options), Bjerksund-Stensland (american-style options), binomial as in TFA, or other open options pricing model: none of these use technical analysis.

Here's an example (for european-style options) where one can see the parameters:

https://www.mystockoptions.com/black-scholes.cfm

You can literally compute entire options chains with these parameters.

Now it's known for a fact that many professional traders firms have their own options pricing method and shall arb when they think they find incorrectly priced options. I don't know if some use actual so forms of TA that they then mix with options pricing model or not.

> My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down.

No matter if you're right or not, I'd argue you're doing what's called fundamental analysis (but I may be wrong).

P.S: I'm not debatting the merits of TA and whether it's reading into tea leaves or not. What I'm saying is that options pricing using the binomial method cannot be called "technical analysis" for TA is something else.