| ▲ | koolba 13 hours ago | |
> One of the questions of the 2026 acx prediction contest is whether Nvidia’s stock price will close below $100 on any day in 2026. Maybe I’m missing something, but isn’t this just a standard American put option with a strike of $100 and expiry of Dec 31st? | ||
| ▲ | amelius 13 hours ago | parent | next [-] | |
No because if it goes to $99.99, you don't win much. With a prediction contest it is either you win or you lose. | ||
| ▲ | mklyachman 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | |
Not really. American put options will pay differently for 95 dollars vs 99 dollars, while this contract settles to 1 either which way. | ||
| ▲ | throw-qqqqq 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | |
It’s a binary option. | ||