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▲ wyager 21 hours ago

> Its the fact that it gives very powerful people a vehicle to make lobsided bets on outcomes they control.

OK, and? The market is just paying them to make information about their decisions public.

▲socialcommenter 20 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Parent comment has a strong implication that the bets will impact their decisions, and invariably for the worse.

If "Politician XYZ takes the day off and sits on the couch" were paying 100-1 odds, it wouldn't be such a big drama (although, again, the existence of the bet would still impact their behaviour)

▲bs7280 20 hours ago | parent [-]

Correct. I've always had a hard time getting my point phrased in a way that gets people to understand my point, but I'm baffled that people don't see an issue with creating something that says "Hey if you blow up these random people in Iran today you can make $50 million dollars and no one can punish you" and thinking its not a big fucking deal.

This also isn't a theoretical issue that may happen - it dissapoints me that very few people know this but - on October 10th when BTC fell from $122k to $104k because of a trump announcement, someone created a short position 30 minutes before Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and profited $200M USD.

▲bs7280 19 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I replied to 1 comment below yours - but I want to ask, how do you think this incentivizes people to make info about decisions public? That would lower the return on their bets.