I have occasionally tried checking Polymarket and Kalshi to get an idea of the general political/cultural/technological consensus on various issues that are difficult to research otherwise, eg. "what are the chances that the Senate changes hands in the 2026 midterms?" People have thought about it enough to wager a million dollars and the consensus is at about 1/3. I have this abstract prediction market in my head, each bet placed by some statistically average person with diverse experiences and exposures from my own bubble, who carefully considers their information and puts their two cents into the pot, and I assume that by adding all our ideas together we form some sort of combined intelligence which is more insightful and reliable together than any individual pundit could be.

And then I go back to the home page, and see all the rabid sports fans, and realize that these bets are not being placed by deep thinkers.