> I'm trying to understand what the criticism is here, because the example seems to support the point that these are meant to be a way of learning the future, not oppose it.

Indeed. Insider trading is a feature of prediction markets, not a bug. There are two kinds of people who participate in prediction markets:

1. People who have insider information, or at least more sophisticated predictive capability than your average person.

2. Gamblers.

In effect, prediction markets are a way to move wealth from the second group to the first. If you understand that and still want to participate, cool. It's your money, and you're allowed to gamble it away if you find that entertaining.

At any rate, given the relatively small-potatoes level of bets going on at Polymarket and Kalshi, the article author's breathless anxiety about this is a bit overblown.

Kalshi and Polymarket have a billion dollar of open interest between them (though velocity here matters too and volume is not very useful). The important thing is they are growing fast. Which means it might become big-potatoes very soon.

>1. People who have insider information,

I mean, most stock trading prevents insider trading, unless of course you're a in congress.

Seemingly regulators consider this a bug in every other market type, but suddenly this gambling market allows it?

> breathless anxiety about this

All fun and games until people start dying from it.