The missing piece is the distinction between a market that observes reality and a market that instigates it.

The criticism is about the systemic risk of converting prediction markets into "Assassination Markets"—mechanisms where the payout is not a reward for foresight, but a bounty for action.

In the case of Maduro, the operation cost around $300 million so a $400,000 payout isn’t providing a financial incentive.

But in the case of assassination, a $400,000 payout is sufficient motivation.

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WolfCop an hour ago | parent [-]

> In the case of Maduro, the operation cost around $300 million so a $400,000 payout isn’t providing a financial incentive.

It is if you are spending someone else’s $300 million, and getting the $400,000 yourself.

	▲	gpm an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Or if you're the military commander with the option to disobey the illegal order (to go to war without congressional authorization) or take the bribe and execute the order. "Unmarked cash" (which this is) has pretty different purposes from official funds. I think there's a pretty good chance the person who took that money was opportunistic, this time, but $400k isn't a trivial sum of money, it's not impossible it was the difference between this happening and not.