> And no person in a position to start a war would do it to affect a Polymarket bet.

Are you fucking kidding? Based just on current events, that is absolutely not a statement you can make without at least trying to prove it.

If you do try to prove that you will fail as the idea that people would start wars for profit is as old as wars.

Just evaluate the sentence you've just created. How many people exist who have the capability to start wars or influence the start of wars? It's a lot. What else do you know about these people and their motivations?