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Buttons840 7 hours ago

This is a problem, a net negative and a sign of a weakening society.

But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe?

It seems hard to be a climate change denier when you're about to gamble on it.

Or maybe people will find a way to gamble while still living in completely different reality bubbles. Probably.

If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last election, just wait until next election when he also has $100,000 on the line...

sowbug 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe?

Only in a truth-agnostic sense. Good gamblers in player-banked games (poker; rock, scissors, paper) vs house-banked games (slots) are good at figuring out what the other guy is representing. The actual truth is much less significant.

mcintyre1994 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I suspect that in practice, because a lot of online gamblers spend a lot of time specifically on X, they’re more susceptible than average to fake news.

tpm 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe?

Long time ago I was working for a betting company and we had a product where virtual (horses, dogs, bikes, cars) were racing in a virtual environment. This was displayed on a TV in physical branches and on the website, along with completely transparent information that it is all random, source of randomness was even some government audited hardware. The customers could place bets on these virtual racers, identified by numbers. Essentially if there were 8 'dogs' in a race, there was a 1/8 chance your pick would win. And then a new set of random numbers would be generated and based on that a new 'race' video would play. The 'races' would go on every day, 4 in hour or something like that.

And the customers (in the live chat or sitting in the physical locations) were often debating the form of the individual 'dogs', how they would perform in the next race and so on. Yes, really.

ManuelKiessling 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Am I overlooking something, or would that mean it’s super easy for a rational participant to make money?

pyrolistical 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Sometimes. Often the sure fire bets have lower returns than the expected annual stock market returns.

You have to watch out for resolutions are don’t depend on the truth or could be abused.

Examples of markets to avoid are those that a single individual can manipulate. They could take the most profitable side and corrupt the result.

gpm 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Presumably it's a negative expected value game - the company running it has to make money after all... so likely not.

pyrolistical 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Prediction markets don’t need a bookie. Each bet has another real person taking the other side.

It’s more like the stock market brokerages. They just take a fee on each trade and don’t need to give you a spread over the stock price

gpm 3 hours ago | parent [-]

This subthread is not about prediction markets

reillyse 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

pigeon dancing (ala Skinner). Humans love to ascribe meaning to things, we have a real problem with randomness.

andrepd 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe?

5 minutes browsing polymarket comments will dispel that notion really fast.

pyrolistical 4 hours ago | parent [-]

But at least you can make them poorer

daveguy 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Or just ignore all that garbage.

thaumasiotes 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last election, just wait until next election when he also has $100,000 on the line...

I've seen the comment that prediction markets can be viewed as a tool for making conflicts more intractable.

NedF 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[dead]

otikik 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe?

Crypto bros. Remember when all of them were saying that NFTs were the future?