I think that programming as a job has already changed. Because it is hard for most people to tell the difference between someone who actually has programming skills and experience versus someone who has some technical ingenuity but has only ever used AI to program for them.

Now the expectation from some executives or high level managers is that managers and employees will create custom software for their own departments with minimal software development costs. They can do this using AI tools, often with minimal or no help from software engineers.

Its not quite the equivalent of having software developed entirely by software engineers, but it can be a significant step up from what you typically get from Excel.

I have a pretty radical view that the leading edge of this stuff has been moving much faster than most people realize:

2024: AI-enhanced workflows automating specific tasks

2025: manually designed/instructed tool calling agents completing complex tasks

2026: the AI Employee emerges -- robust memory, voice interface, multiple tasks, computer and browser use. They manage their own instructions, tools and context

2027: Autonomous AI Companies become viable. AI CEO creates and manages objectives and AI employees

Note that we have had the AI Employee and AI Organization for awhile in different somewhat weak forms. But in the next 18 months or so as the model and tooling abilities continue to improve, they will probably be viable for a growing number of business roles and businesses.