the point of expertise and intelligence is, in part, to be able to know what's going to happen BEFORE doing it. Perhaps without even doing it. You could be wrong, sure -- but there has to be a rate of that happening, and the more intelligent people are wrong less. At some point there are situations where you _know_ what's going to happen and then it happens, inevitably, providing no new information. And in my experience this happens _all the time_ in big tech. It is not hard to predict the failures. But things happen for social and political reasons, not intelligent ones, and so the predictions don't matter.