> the smartphone replacement cycle is the only predictable cash flow

people are holding onto their phones for longer: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/23/how-device-hoarding-by-ameri...

Still more predictable than GPU buys in the current climate. Power connector melting aside, GPUs in most cases get replaced less frequently than cell phones, unless of course you have lots of capital/profit infusion to for whatever reason stay ahead of the game.

Heck if Apple wanted to be super cheeky, they could probably still pivot on the reserved capacity to do something useful (e.x. revised older design for whatever node they reserved where they can get more chips/wafer for cheaper models.)

NVDA on the other hand is burning a lot of good-will in their consumer space, and if a competitor somehow is able to outdo them it could be catastrophic.

	▲	lovich an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Yea, it’s anecdata, but I only replaced my 1080 ti about 1.5 years ago. Graphical fidelity is at the point that unless some new technology comes out to take advantage of GPUs, I don’t see myself ever upgrading the part. Only replacing it whenever it dies. And that 1080 ti isn’t dead either, I passed the rig onto someone who wanted to get into PC gaming and it’s still going strong. I mostly upgraded because I needed more ram and my motherboards empty slots were full of drywall dust. The phone I’m more liable to upgrade solely due to battery life degradation.