AI capex may or may not flatten in the near future (and I don't necessarily see a reason why it would). But smartphone capex already has.

Like smartphones, AI chips also have a replacement cycle. AI chips depreciate quickly -- not because the old ones go bad, but because the new ones are so much better in performance and efficiency than the previous generation. While smartphones aren't making huge leaps every year like they used to, AI chips still are -- meaning there's a stronger incentive to upgrade every cycle for these chips than smartphone processors.

> AI chips depreciate quickly -- not because the old ones go bad

I've heard that it's exactly that, reports of them burning out every 2-3 years. Haven't seen any hard numbers though.