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nyrikki 5 hours ago

I don't think [0] is showing what you think it does.

> % Very satisfied with the way things are going in personal life

That Dropped from 65% in 2020 to 44% in 2025

> Record-Low 44% of Americans Are 'Very Satisfied' With Their Personal Life

Also focusing on the raw percentages of these style reports is challenging, due to socially desirable response bias [0]

The fact it is dropping is the important part, it is a relative measure, not a absolute one, and I am sure Gallop would change there questions/responses in a modern survey that didn't need to maintain compatibility with historical data.

[0] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5519338/

arjie 5 hours ago | parent [-]

* Gallup (not Gallop) has the English questions and responses in the PDF at the bottom of the page. They will also respond if you email them so you can check if wording changed significantly.

* Yes, I am pretty sure the Gallup thing is showing exactly what I think it does considering I said "81% are [somewhat] satisfied or very satisfied" and the Gallup survey shows that 81% are somewhat satisfied or very satisfied.

* The fact that the Hacker News community was enthusiastic about the thesis of a loneliness epidemic during a period when satisfaction was rising casts aspersions on "the fact that it is dropping is the important part". When satisfaction was rising, there were still posts on that where everyone was agreeing about how bad it was.

nyrikki 4 hours ago | parent [-]

I was looking at the PDF [0] and [1] and [0] calls out:

> In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

``QN5:Personal Satisfaction is a binary question``, with a category for refused/didn't know that WAS NOT OFFERED IN THE QUESTION, with an additional question asking about very, sort of etc... They call out `QN5QN6COMBO: Personal Life Satisfaction`

I can't answer the HN sentiment straw man, the DELTA from previous results is what is important. Using it as an absolute scale would almost certainly be discouraged if you asked them via the email address in the PDF.

Basic statistics realities here, and Gallup knows the limits far better than the comment section here. And they understand that "81% are [somewhat] satisfied or very satisfied" especially when presented as two trivial properties, has limitations.

Once again they asked:

> In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in your personal life at this time?

Then followed up with:

> Are you very [satisfied/dissatisfied], or just somewhat [satisfied/dissatisfied]?

Note how both of those are binary, with a NULL being an option to mark down as an exception.

You do not have quintiles at all.

[0] https://carsey.unh.edu/sites/default/files/media/2020/07/gal...

[1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/1672/satisfaction-personal-life...

arjie 4 hours ago | parent [-]

I don't think it's a straw man. If it is true that the delta matters and it is also true that at the time when this metric was showing the most positive results and trending upwards, online communities such as this talk about the existence of the loneliness epidemic https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20468767 then one must ask oneself whether this is a property of the online communities in question.

At the time when the gallup poll showed an upward trend towards its peak this community was talking about the loneliness epidemic. When the gallup poll shows a downward trend toward its lowest, this community is talking about the loneliness epidemic. And it's the change in satisfaction that is the most significant. So there are two changes in opposite directions causing the same conclusion.

If this were happening to me, I would ask myself "Am I sure this is a general property and not just a property of me?". Do you find this not convincing to move your estimate of the likelihood of the loneliness epidemic actually existing? If you don't, it's all right. We can leave it here.