Remix.run Logo
827a 3 hours ago

They're booked out by the people making these bulk deals. Apple has significant weight to throw at TSMC, Micron, etc when it comes to negotiating both capacity and price; far more than the DIY manufacturers. The same laws apply to Nvidia, Quallcomm, and AMD.

The sub-argument to this is that graphics cards will drive up fab prices for other packaged silicon products; this has probably been true for the past two years, but its very likely that we'll see this change in 2026. Even if theoretical demand stays high (which is debatable, but not for today): every major AI lab is sitting on warehouses of gigawatts of ready silicon, with nowhere to power them, so real demand will drop as the bottlenecks of data center construction and power delivery are solved. Those problems will take another few years. Even if these companies have the money and want to spend it: It makes zero sense to buy cards today, to have them sit in a warehouse for two years, when you can sit on the cash and buy newer-generation cards in a year.

I would bet very real money that, sometime in 2026, we will see Nvidia reduce or cancel a committed fab order from TSMC.