Sneak preview of the TSMC shortage that will sweep the world in 2027 when China takes Taiwan and the TSMC scuttles their chip fabs on the island.

I don’t know the hedge to position against this but I’m pretty sure China will make good on its promise.

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strangegecko 44 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

There is no "promise".

The 2027 date was a guideline for their military to be "ready", which they may not be either. That is a far cry from the decision to actually make a move. They will only do that if they're certain it will work out for them, and as things stand, it is very risky for Xi.

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edm0nd 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm not sure how true it is or not but I heard that TSMC has the ability to remotely destroy all of their main fab equipment in the event the Chinese are invading Taiwan.

	▲	schainks 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		This is correct: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-21/asml-tsmc... The most advanced ASML machines also cost something like $300-400M each and I am willing to bet if configured wrong can heavily damage themselves and the building they are in.

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fauigerzigerk 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Alternatively, China could make progress fabricating and exporting its own chips and designing its own GPUs. The entire chip sector could go the way of solar panels and EVs with prices dropping and margins collapsing to near zero.

	▲	Jackpillar 7 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Yup, they're also like 5-10 years out from their own lithography machines as well. China wanted Taiwan before TSMC was a thing, by the time they take Taiwan back they won't need TSMC.

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IncreasePosts 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm about 100% positive America would consider that an act of war and respond accordingly.

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ajross 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> I don’t know the hedge to position against this

Buy in-demand fab output today, even at a premium price and even if you can't install or power it all, expecting shortages tomorrow. Which is pretty much the way the tech economy is already working.

So no, no hedge. NVIDIA's customers already beat you to it.