And anyone who thinks they can consistently predict who will be among the 4% is... mistaken. Diversification is how one manages risk when a system has a power law distribution of outcomes.

Trying to beat the market is playing a zero sum game. Someone has to lose for you to win. I understand savvy winners add information, but most winners are just lucky and it still makes me uneasy to play a zero sum game.

When you simply try to match the market, you float on the tide that mostly raises all boats and sometimes lowers them. That sits much better with me.