| ▲ | anArbitraryOne 2 hours ago | |
It would be more straightforward to remove the permutations and just display the combinations and the symmetry between heads and tails. And solve it analytically Eg: if p is the probability that the NPC is correct
Anyway, the apparent strangeness of the tie case comes from the fact that the binomial PMF is symmetric with respect to n (the number of participants) and n-k.
So when k = n/2, the symmetry means that the likelihood is identical under p and 1-p, so we're not gaining any information. This is a really good illustration of that; interesting post! (edit: apparently i suck at formatting) | ||