My impression is that solar (and maybe wind?) energy have benefited from learning-by-doing [1][2] that has resulted in lower costs and/or improved performance each year. It seems reasonable to me that a similar process will apply to AI (at least in the long run). The rate of learning could be seen as a "pace" of improvement. I'm curious, do you have a reference for the deceleration of pace that you refer to?

[1] https://emp.lbl.gov/news/new-study-refocuses-learning-curve

[2] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices-vs-cumula...