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bazzargh 12 hours ago

You would find things in there that were already close to QM and relativity. The Michelson-Morley experiment was 1887 and Lorentz transformations came along in 1889. The photoelectric effect (which Einstein explained in terms of photons in 1905) was also discovered in 1887. William Clifford (who _died_ in 1889) had notions that foreshadowed general relativity: "Riemann, and more specifically Clifford, conjectured that forces and matter might be local irregularities in the curvature of space, and in this they were strikingly prophetic, though for their pains they were dismissed at the time as visionaries." - Banesh Hoffmann (1973)

Things don't happen all of a sudden, and being able to see all the scientific papers of the era its possible those could have fallen out of the synthesis.

somenameforme 19 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

It's only easy to see precursors in hindsight. The Michelson-Morley tale is a great example of this. In hindsight, their experiment was screaming relativity, because it demonstrated that the speed of light was identical from two perspectives where it's very difficult to explain without relativity. Lorentz contraction was just a completely ad-hoc proposal to maintain the assumptions of the time (luminiferous aether in particular) while also explaining the result. But in general it was not seen as that big of a deal.

There's a very similar parallel with dark matter in modern times. We certainly have endless hints to the truth that will be evident in hindsight, but for now? We are mostly convinced that we know the truth, perform experiments to prove that, find nothing, shrug, adjust the model to be even more esoteric, and repeat onto the next one. And maybe one will eventually show something, or maybe we're on the wrong path altogether. This quote, from Michelson in 1894 (more than a decade before Einstein would come along), is extremely telling of the opinion at the time:

"While it is never safe to affirm that the future of Physical Science has no marvels in store even more astonishing than those of the past, it seems probable that most of the grand underlying principles have been firmly established and that further advances are to be sought chiefly in the rigorous application of these principles to all the phenomena which come under our notice. It is here that the science of measurement shows its importance — where quantitative work is more to be desired than qualitative work. An eminent physicist remarked that the future truths of physical science are to be looked for in the sixth place of decimals." - Michelson 1894

matthewh806 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I presume that's what the parent post is trying to get at? Seeing if, given the cutting edge scientific knowledge of the day, the LLM is able to synthesis all it into a workable theory of QM by making the necessary connections and (quantum...) leaps

Standing on the shoulders of giants, as it were

palmotea 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

But that's not the OP's challenge, he said "if the model comes up with anything even remotely correct." The point is there were things already "remotely correct" out there in 1900. If the LLM finds them, it wouldn't "be quite a strong evidence that LLMs are a path to something bigger."

pegasus 10 hours ago | parent [-]

It's not the comment which is illogical, it's your (mis)interpretation of it. What I (and seemingly others) took it to mean is basically could an LLM do Einstein's job? Could it weave together all those loose threads into a coherent new way of understanding the physical world? If so, AGI can't be far behind.

feanaro 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This alone still wouldn't be a clear demonstration that AGI is around the corner. It's quite possible a LLM could've done Einstein's job, if Einstein's job was truly just synthesising already available information into a coherent new whole. (I couldn't say, I don't know enough of the physics landscape of the day to claim either way.)

It's still unclear whether this process could be merely continued, seeded only with new physical data, in order to keep progressing beyond that point, "forever", or at least for as long as we imagine humans will continue to go on making scientific progress.

pegasus 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Einstein is chosen in such contexts because he's the paradigmatic paradigm-shifter. Basically, what you're saying is: "I don't know enough history of science to confirm this incredibly high opinion on Einstein's achievements. It could just be that everyone's been wrong about him, and if I'd really get down and dirty, and learn the facts at hand, I might even prove it." Einstein is chosen to avoid exactly this kind of nit-picking.

Shorel 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

They can also choose Euler or Gauss.

These two are so above everyone else in the mathematical world that most people would struggle for weeks or even months to understand something they did in a couple of minutes.

There's no "get down and dirty" shortcut with them =)

feanaro 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

No, by saying this, I am not downplaying Einstein's sizeable achievements nor trying to imply everyone was wrong about him. His was an impressive breadth of knowledge and mathematical prowess and there's no denying this.

However, what I'm saying is not mere nitpicking either. It is precisely because of my belief in Einstein's extraordinary abilities that I find it unconvincing that an LLM being able to recombine the extant written physics-related building blocks of 1900, with its practically infinite reading speed, necessarily demonstrates comparable capabilities to Einstein.

The essence of the question is this: would Einstein, having been granted eternal youth and a neverending source of data on physical phenomena, be able to innovate forever? Would an LLM?

My position is that even if an LLM is able to synthesise special relativity given 1900 knowledge, this doesn't necessarily mean that a positive answer to the first question implies a positive answer to the second.

techno_tsar 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This does make me think about Kuhn's concept of scientific revolutions and paradigms, and that paradigms are incommensurate with one another. Since new paradigms can't be proven or disproven by the rules of the old paradigm, if an LLM could independently discover paradigm shifts similar to moving from Newtonian gravity to general relativity, then we have empirical evidence of an LLM performing a feature of general intelligence.

However, you could also argue that it's actually empirical evidence that general relativity and 19th century physics wasn't truly a paradigm shift -- you could have 'derived' it from previous data -- that the LLM has actually proven something about structurally similarities between those paradigms, not that it's demonstrating general intelligence...

ctoth 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I mean, "the pieces were already there" is true of everything? Einstein was synthesizing existing math and existing data is your point right?

But the whole question is whether or not something can do that synthesis!

And the "anyone who read all the right papers" thing - nobody actually reads all the papers. That's the bottleneck. LLMs don't have it. They will continue to not have it. Humans will continue to not be able to read faster than LLMs.

Even me, using a speech synthesizer at ~700 WPM.

feanaro 4 hours ago | parent [-]

> I mean, "the pieces were already there" is true of everything? Einstein was synthesizing existing math and existing data is your point right?

If it's true of everything, then surely having an LLM work iteratively on the pieces, along with being provided additional physical data, will lead to the discovery of everything?

If the answer is "no", then surely something is still missing.

> And the "anyone who read all the right papers" thing - nobody actually reads all the papers. That's the bottleneck. LLMs don't have it. They will continue to not have it. Humans will continue to not be able to read faster than LLMs.

I agree with this. This is a definitive advantage of LLMs.

8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]
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f0ti 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Einstein is not AGI, and neither the other way around.

9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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andai 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

AGI is human level intelligence, and the minimum bar is Einstein?

pegasus 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Who said anything of a minimum bar? "If so", not "Only if so".

andy12_ 7 hours ago | parent [-]

I think the problem is the formulation "If so, AGI can't be far behind". I think that if a model were advanced enough such that it could do Einstein's job, that's it; that's AGI. Would it be ASI? Not necessarily, but that's another matter.

actionfromafar 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Yeah but... we still might not know if it could do that because we were really close by 1900 or if the LLM is very smart.

scottlamb 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

What's the bar here? Does anyone say "we don't know if Einstein could do this because we were really close or because he was really smart?"

I by no means believe LLMs are general intelligence, and I've seen them produce a lot of garbage, but if they could produce these revolutionary theories from only <= year 1900 information and a prompt that is not ridiculously leading, that would be a really compelling demonstration of their power.

emodendroket 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Does anyone say "we don't know if Einstein could do this because we were really close or because he was really smart?"

It turns out my reading is somewhat topical. I've been reading Rhodes' "The Making of the Atomic Bomb" and of the things he takes great pains to argue (I was not quite anticipating how much I'd be trying to recall my high school science classes to make sense of his account of various experiments) is that the development toward the atomic bomb was more or less inexorable and if at any point someone said "this is too far; let's stop here" there would be others to take his place. So, maybe, to answer your question.

twoodfin 3 hours ago | parent [-]

It’s been a while since I read it, but I recall Rhodes’ point being that once the fundamentals of fission in heavy elements were validated, making a working bomb was no longer primarily a question of science, but one of engineering.

bmacho 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Does anyone say "we don't know if Einstein could do this because we were really close or because he was really smart?

Yes. It is certainly a question if Einstein is one of the smartest guy ever lived or all of his discoveries were already in the Zeitgeist, and would have been discovered by someone else in ~5 years.

cyberax 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Both can be true?

Einstein was smart and put several disjointed things together. It's amazing that one person could do so much, from explaining the Brownian motion to explaining the photoeffect.

But I think that all these would have happened within _years_ anyway.

echoangle 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Does anyone say "we don't know if Einstein could do this because we were really close or because he was really smart?"

Kind of, how long would it have realistically taken for someone else (also really smart) to come up with the same thing if Einstein wouldn't have been there?

pegasus 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

But you're not actually questioning whether he was "really smart". Which was what GP was questioning. Sure, you can try to quantify the level of smarts, but you can't still call it a "stochastic parrot" anymore, just like you won't respond to Einstein's achievements, "Ah well, in the end I'm still not sure he's actually smart, like I am for example. Could just be that he's just dumbly but systematically going through all options, working it out step by step, nothing I couldn't achieve (or even better, program a computer to do) if I'd put my mind to it."

I personally doubt that this would work. I don't think these systems can achieve truly ground-breaking, paradigm-shifting work. The homeworld of these systems is the corpus of text on which it was trained, in the same way as ours is physical reality. Their access to this reality is always secondary, already distorted by the imperfections of human knowledge.

jaggederest 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Well, we know many watershed moments in history were more a matter of situation than the specific person - an individual genius might move things by a decade or two, but in general the difference is marginal. True bolt-out-of-the-blue developments are uncommon, though all the more impressive for that fact, I think.

sleet_spotter 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Well, if one had enough time and resources, this would make for an interesting metric. Could it figure it out with cut-off of 1900? If so, what about 1899? 1898? What context from the marginal year was key to the change in outcome?

mannykannot 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If (as you seem to be suggesting) relativity was effectively lying there on the table waiting for Einstein to just pick it up, how come it blindsided most, if not quite all, of the greatest minds of his generation?

TeMPOraL 2 hours ago | parent [-]

That's the case with all scientific discoveries - pieces of prior work get accumulated, until it eventually becomes obvious[0] how they connect, at which point someone[1] connects the dots, making a discovery... and putting it on the table, for the cycle to repeat anew. This is, in a nutshell, the history of all scientific and technological progress. Accumulation of tiny increments.

--

[0] - To people who happen to have the right background and skill set, and are in the right place.

[1] - Almost always multiple someones, independently, within short time of each other. People usually remember only one or two because, for better or worse, history is much like patent law: first to file wins.

bhaak 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This would still be valuable even if the LLM only finds out about things that are already in the air.

It’s probably even more of a problem that different areas of scientific development don’t know about each other. LLMs combining results would still not be like they invented something new.

But if they could give us a head start of 20 years on certain developments this would be an awesome result.

djwide 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

With LLMs the synthesis cycles could happen at a much higher frequency. Decades condensed to weeks or days?

I imagine possible buffers on that conjecture synthesis being epxerimentation and acceptance by the scientific community. AIs can come up with new ideas every day but Nature won't publish those ideas for years.

Shorel 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Then that experiment is even more interesting, and should be done.

My own prediction is that the LLMs would totally fail at connecting the dots, but a small group of very smart humans can.

Things don't happen all of a sudden, but they also don't happen everywhere. Most people in most parts of the world would never connect the dots. Scientific curiosity is something valuable and fragile, that we just take for granted.

bigfudge 7 hours ago | parent [-]

One of the reasons they don’t happen everywhere is because there are just a few places at any given point in time where there are enough well connected and educated individuals who are in a position to even see all the dots let alone connect them. This doesn’t discount the achievement of an LLM also manages to, but I think it’s important to recognise that having enough giants in sight is an important prerequisite to standing on their shoulders

gus_massa 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I agree, but it's important to note that QM has no clear formulation until 2025/6, it's like 20 years more of work than SR.

pests 3 hours ago | parent [-]

2025/6?