The claim that fentanyl death rates are decreasing because fentanyl products are less pure does not make much sense. Even on their provided charts, deaths dropped months before purity did.

The article points to a 50% decrease in purity, which a habitual user would compensate for by taking twice as much. Lower average purity also increases the risk of inconsistent purity, where rare batches are unexpectedly strong and carry high accidental overdose risk. Less pure fentanyl floating around might mean lower chances of unsuspecting non-fentanyl drug users being poisoned with it, but it's hard to see how this could cut into overall overdose cases.

It makes a great deal of sense.

> deaths dropped months before purity did

That's a plausible lag: credible purity figures are not sourced from Mexican drug cartels. They come from laboratories at the end of a long chain of custody complicated by legal machinations, dealing with contraband having no provenance beyond its date of seizure. That it takes only "months" to wend its way though the byzantine and corrupt legal system, and the bankers hours academic process of laboratory professionals, is actually admirable.

> which a habitual user would compensate for by taking twice as much

Habitual users are operating in a market, seeking value. They cannot afford to simply double their spend, and I'll give you one guess as to how quickly purity drops are reflected by price drops in the narcotics business, because that's all a person of sound mind should need.

No, when the purity dropped, users paid the same and got less, and died less. Believe me, I understand why this finding is unwelcome: it serves to put arrows in the "drug war" quiver, and that is anathema, in my mind as well. But knee-jerk thinking, ultimately, isn't helpful. Further, I have complete faith that the ability of drug dealers and drug users of America to produce disturbing body counts will not be diminished for long.

> article points to a 50% decrease in purity, which a habitual user would compensate for by taking twice as much

I’ll be first to admit I’m generally pretty ignorant on this topic but I’ve heard a plausible explanation for how Fentanyl is actually used.

A medical professional shared with me that Fentanyl is too potent to be consumed as is. So generally, dealers use it as an additive. They lace other drugs with trace amounts of to make them more addictive. It’s the MSG of drugs.

So while ODing on say, drug A is possibly with 5 uses at once. When laced with Fentanyl, a person might OD in just 3 uses (because Fentanyl is much more potent than the actual drug the user bought).

Hence, less Fentanyl = less chance of ODing.