| ▲ | Analemma_ a day ago |
| I thought this was already well-established public information? That fentanyl came mostly from China was never in doubt, what people were arguing about was whether this was happening with the tacit approval of the Chinese government. Then in 2023 China cracked down on it, and supplies dried up. Whether that was because it was a big enough issue to get their attention, or it was on purpose and they decided it was no longer serving their interests I suspect we'll never know, but I definitely read multiple articles in 2023 about the fentanyl crackdown in China. |
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| ▲ | defrost a day ago | parent | next [-] |
| Biden era cooperation with China on the issue was at the heart of this. It wasn't about the direct supply of Fentanyl, or even (by that stage) the direct supply of Fentanyl precursor drugs .. (that gangs used to industrial shed chem lab into Fentanyl) ... this was cutting back and limiting bulk supply of the precursor precursors to shady onselling networks to starve the labs. Was going well (as per the paper) until US / China relations went in the toilet. Some of this is covered in The Hidden Cost of Trump’s Trade War on China (March 18, 2025) - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/opinion/trump-china-trade... written by a former deputy assistant secretary for US international narcotics and law enforcement affairs. ADDENDUM: 20 page PDF of data, graphs, suppleentary material from the original 8th January 2026 Science paper Did the illicit fentanyl trade experience a supply shock? Kasey Vangelov et al (doi/10.1126/science.aea6130) here: https://www.science.org/doi/suppl/10.1126/science.aea6130/su... |
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| ▲ | tehjoker 21 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| People are always talking about this precusor from China, but I have no idea what this precursor is. Are they chemicals that are useful for lots of things or is it only useful for this? Because if it is the former, then China is just selling regular ass legal chemicals because they are the worlds number 1 supplier of manufactured goods. |
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| ▲ | OneDeuxTriSeiGo 19 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Fun fact: The "traditional" way of making it was extracting piperine from black pepper and reacting that with nitric acid. Nowadays it's made in other more industrial scalable ways. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piperidine#List_of_piperidine_... But yes, the same base precursors (and their siblings) are used to manufacture ADHD meds (ritalin/concerta), antidepressants (paxil), insect repellents (picaridin/bayrepel), hair loss medications (rogaine), allergy meds (claritin), anti-psychotics (haldol), anti-diarrhea meds (imodium), and many others. And also PCP. So it's non-trivial to prevent. The core of the issue is that the one pot Gupta method came about in the 2000s and it made it extremely easy to manufacture fentanyl using these basic building blocks for so much of the pharma industry. Not only just making it easier to source ingredients but it took out all the steps and made the process easy as hell as well. | |
| ▲ | defrost 21 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The challenge in international drug operations was not to get China to stop selling bricks to house builders to but get China to cooperate in stopping the sale of bricks to groups that only use bricks to throw through windows and at heads. |
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| ▲ | cyberax a day ago | parent | prev [-] |
| No, it was in doubt. Now fentanyl is produced from readily available precursors in Mexico. In underground labs: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/29/world/americas/inside-fen... Fentanyl is so potent that just one lab can easily satisfy all the US demand with it, around 10kg a day. That's also why it's ridiculously hard to fight, one smuggled barrel of pure product can supply the entire US for months. So no, there is no "supply shock". There's just more free Narcan (naloxone). |
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| ▲ | cogman10 a day ago | parent | next [-] | | Cocaine death decreases is the hard thing to explain with either theory, supply or naloxone. Fentanyl supply doesn't affect cocaine in any way and naloxone doesn't work on a cocaine OD. Maybe some percentage of cocaine deaths are misattributed fentanyl deaths? I also wonder if there's any link to the Oxycontin reforms. Perhaps now that prescription is reigned in, we are seeing a lot fewer oxy->fent cases which has cut back on the deaths. Or maybe it's actually that the drug dealers have gotten more careful. Drug dealers don't want to kill their clients, so maybe they've been purposefully diluting to make sure they get repeat customers. | | |
| ▲ | 20after4 a day ago | parent | next [-] | | > Perhaps now that prescription is reigned in, we are seeing a lot fewer oxy->fent cases which has cut back on the deaths. This is definitely part of the story. When your primary source of new addicts is prescription opioids and you cut down on the prescriptions then over time, as people die off from OD, then the OD rate is bound to drop. The most tragic part of it, to me, is that it's usually the people who got clean who eventually OD. Once they've been clean for a short time then their tolerance for the drug drops drastically, then if they break down and do "just one dose" they make the fatal mistake of thinking they can still handle the same amount they were used to doing before. This exact scenario happened to multiple more or less close acquaintances of mine, even people who were aware of tolerance and should have known better. I'm fairly sure that it's extremely common. | | |
| ▲ | greygoo222 a day ago | parent [-] | | This theory predicts a significant decrease in addiction rates. Is there any evidence of that? |
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| ▲ | greygoo222 a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I believe they're using CDC data, which states: "Drug overdose deaths may involve multiple drugs; therefore, a single death might be included in more than one category when describing the number of drug overdose deaths involving specific drugs."
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm Someone who overdosed after taking cocaine contaminated with fentanyl would be counted as a cocaine ODD. The Oxycontin "reforms" caused the fentanyl crisis to begin with. People often moved onto heroin and fentanyl because pharmaceuticals were no longer accessible. The massive spike in overdose deaths begun after the decline in opioid prescriptions. See the Opioid Prescriptions & Opioid Overdose Deaths graph here https://drugabusestatistics.org/opioid-epidemic/ | |
| ▲ | jddj a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | In Europe the per kg price of cocaine has apparently halved. If that's the case in the US as well, it could be that as a result there's more cocaine in the cocaine and fewer adulterants. | | |
| ▲ | mjanx123 19 hours ago | parent [-] | | People don't have the money to buy drugs, deaths go down and price as well (albeit slower). | | |
| ▲ | herbst 14 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Prices in Europe went down but quality also went way up, so they "consumer" numbers | |
| ▲ | zdragnar 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | For addicts, the drug is the last thing they cut back on when money is tight. |
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| ▲ | cyberax 21 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Pure cocaine overdose deaths are relatively rare. Only around 5% of cocaine deaths involved pure cocaine, it's almost always mixed with something else. > I also wonder if there's any link to the Oxycontin reforms. Perhaps now that prescription is reigned in, we are seeing a lot fewer oxy->fent cases which has cut back on the deaths. Prescription pills have been a non-issue for a decade by now. > Or maybe it's actually that the drug dealers have gotten more careful. Drug dealers don't want to kill their clients, so maybe they've been purposefully diluting to make sure they get repeat customers. Yup. I think that's exactly it. The major reason for fentanyl deaths was not unintentional overdose because of poor pill quality. It was way too easy to end up with 1mg instead of 500mcg during pill mixture preparation. So _reducing_ the amount of fentanyl per pill results in a better safety margin. And users can just smoke another pill if one pill was not enough to get high, after all. And yeah, it's just possible that the more reckless drug users are just dead by now. But to be clear, it's still absolutely horrible. We're still above the 2021 level. |
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| ▲ | SilverElfin a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | So presumably Venezuela is not a factor, as the administration claimed? | | |
| ▲ | 20after4 a day ago | parent | next [-] | | Of course it isn't. | |
| ▲ | tehjoker 21 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Trump said it's about the oil himself. https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/trump-maduro-venezuela-darfur... | | |
| ▲ | CraigJPerry 12 hours ago | parent [-] | | Revealed preferences suggest otherwise and that matters because he says a lot of things, often contradictory. Is it just another Epstein diversion maybe? Oil story doesn't stack up though: - it's heavy sour oil, the tar like substance isn't economically extractable without an almost doubling in barrel price
- cheaper (existing infra) sour supply chain with Canada already meets US shale light sweet oil blending needs for a long time
- decided on maintaining stability of existing Venezuelan regime over supporting regime change
One thing that lines up so far is it does seem to be disproportionately effective at displacing column inches spent on the pending bringing to justice of Epstein entangled elites. Disproportionately because that pursuit of justice seems quite resilient in resisting partisanship breakdown. |
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