> To me, this sounds like when we first went to the moon, and people were sure we'd be on Mars be the end of the 80's.

Unlike space colonisation, there are immediate economic rewards from producing even modest improvements in AI models. As such, we should expect much faster progress in AI than space colonisation.

But it could still turn out the same way, for all we know. I just think that's unlikely.

The minerals in the asteroid belt are estimated to be worth in the $100s of quintillions. I would say that’s a decent economic incentive to develop space exploration (not necessarily colonization, but it may make it easier).