Some of the best advice I've ever heard is to look at how people act and ignore how they claim they act or their stated reasons for doing so.

A corollary is that even a "technically false" model can better predict someone's actions than a "truthful one".

Trump may not be a Russian agent, but he acts like one consistently.

It's more effective to simply assume he's an agent of a foreign power, because that's the best predictor of his actions.