> The burden of proof is 100% on anyone claiming the productivity gains

IMHO, I think this is just going to go away. I was up until recently using copilot in my IDE or the chat interface in my browser and I was severely underwhelmed. Gemini kept generating incorrect code which when pasted didn't compile, and the process was just painful and a brake on productivity.

Recently I started using Claude Code cli on their latest opus model. The difference is astounding. I can give you more details on how I am working with this if you like, but for the moment, my main point is that Claude Code cli with access to run the tests, run the apps, edit files, etc has made me pretty excited.

And my opinion has now changed because "this is the worst it will be" and I'm already finding it useful.

I think within 5 years, we won't even be having this discussion. The use of coding agents will be so prolific and obviously beneficial that the debate will just go away.

(all in my humble opinion)

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vitaflo 15 hours ago | parent [-]

So will all the tech jobs in the US. When it gets that good you can farm it out to some other country for much cheaper.

	▲	munksbeer 14 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I'm not sure. Possibly? I'm still doing most of my coding by hand, because I haven't yet committed. But even for the stuff I'm doing with claude, I'm still doing a lot of the thought work and steering it to better designs. It requires an experienced dev to understand the better designs, just like it always has been. Maybe this eventually changes and the coding agents get as good at that part, I don't know this, but I do know it is an enabler to me at the moment, and I have 20+ years of experience writing C++ and then Java in the finance industry. I'm still new to claude, I am sure I'm going to run up against some walls soon on the more complicated stuff (haven't tried that yet), but everyone ends up working on tasks they don't find that challenging, just lots of manual keypresses to get the code into the IDE. Claude so far is making that a better experince, for me at least. (Example, plumbing in new message types on our bus and wiring in logic to handle it - not complicated, just sits on top of complicated stuff)