I haven't seen an AI successfully write a full feature to an existing codebase without substantial help, I don't think we are there yet.

> The only question is how long it takes to get there.

This is the question and I would temper expectations with the fact that we are likely to hit diminishing returns from real gains in intelligence as task difficulty increases. Real world tasks probably fit into a complexity hierarchy similar to computational complexity. One of the reasons that the AI predictions made in the 1950s for the 1960s did not come to be was because we assumed problem difficulty scaled linearly. Double the computing speed, get twice as good at chess or get twice as good at planning an economy. P, NP separation planed these predictions. It is likely that current predictions will run into similar separations.

It is probably the case that if you made a human 10x as smart they would only be 1.25x more productive at software engineering. The reason we have 10x engineers is less about raw intelligence, they are not 10x more intelligent, rather they have more knowledge and wisdom.