> shouldn't we be seeing a ton of 1 person startups?

After months of hearing that people are producing software in months that would normally take years, the best examples of vibe coded software I've seen look like they would normally take months, not years. If you don't care how they're built or how long it took (which a user generally doesn't), much of the remaining shine comes off.

If I'm wrong, I'd love to see it. A genuinely big piece of software produced entirely (or near entirely?) with AI that would've normally taken talented engineers years to build.

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falloutx 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Its not true. The best vibe coders have been able to accomplish is projects which look like corporate boilerplates but have no inherent complexity.

Its nothing more than surface level projects that we built when we wanted to pad out the resume.

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TeodorDyakov 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

DO you have any idea of the man hours it took to build those large projects you are speaking of? Lets take Linux for example. Suppose for the sake of argument that Claude Code with Opus 4.5 is as smart as an average person(AGI), but with the added benefit that he can work 24/7. Suppose now i have millions of dollars to burn and am running 1000 such instances on max plans. Now if I have started running this agent since the date Claude Opus 4.5 was released and i prompted him to create a commercial-grade multi-platform OS from the caliber of Linux. An estimate of the linux kernel is 100 million man hours of work. divide by 1000. We expect to have a functioning OS like Linux by 2058 from these calcualtions. How long has claude been released? 2 months.

	▲	emporas 2 days ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Linux is valuable, because very difficult bugs got fixed over time, by talented programmers. Bugs which would cause terrible security problems of external attacks, or corrupted databases and many more. All difficult problems are solved, by solving simple problems first and combining the simple solutions to solve more difficult problems etc etc. Claude can do that, but you seriously overestimate it's capabilities by a factor of a thousand or a million. Code that works but it is buggy, is not what Linux is.
	▲	bodge5000 2 days ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Linux is 34 years old, most large software projects are not. Also your using a specific version of Claude, and sure maybe this time is different (and every other time I've heard that over the past 5 years just isn't the same). I don't buy it, but lets go along with it. Going off that, we have the equivalent of 2 years development time according to whats being promised. Have you seen any software projects come out of Claude 4.5 Opus that you'd guess to have been a 2 year project? If so, please do share

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solumunus 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

I’m building an ERP system, I’ve already been at it for a 3 years (full time, but half the system is already in production with two tenants so not all of my time is spent on completing the product, this revenue completely sustains the project). AI is now speeding this up tremendously. Maybe 2x velocity, which is a game changer but more realistic than what you hear. The post AI features are just as good and stable as pre AI, why wouldn’t they be? I’m not going to put “slop” into my product, it’s all vetted by me. I do anticipate that when the complexity is built out and there are less new features and more maintaining/improving, the productivity will be immense.

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skeeter2020 2 days ago | parent [-]

I'm not discounting your experience, but purely from experiment design, you don't have any sort of pre/post AI control. You've spent 3 years becoming a subject-matter expert who's building software in your domain; I'm not surprised AI in it's current form is helpful. A more valuable comparison would be something like If you kept going without AI, how long would it take someone with similar domain experience who's just starting their solution to catch using AI?

	▲	solumunus 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		According to many conversations I’ve had or observed on this site, plenty of people will be surprised if not doubtful.