Time will tell. I’d bet on Spolsky, because of Hyrum’s Law.

https://www.hyrumslaw.com/

> With a sufficient number of users of an API, it does not matter what you promise in the contract: all observable behaviors of your system will be depended on by somebody.

An LLM rewriting a codebase from scratch is only as good as the spec. If “all observable behaviors” are fair game, the LLM is not going to know which of those behaviors are important.

Furthermore, Spolsky talks about how to do incremental rewrites of legacy code in his post. I’ve done many of these and I expect LLMs will make the next one much easier.

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nojito 2 days ago | parent [-]

>An LLM rewriting a codebase from scratch is only as good as the spec. If “all observable behaviors” are fair game, the LLM is not going to know which of those behaviors are important.

I've been using LLMs to write docs and specs and they are very very good at it.

	▲	rectang 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		That’s a fair point — I agree that LLMs do a good job predicting the documentation that might accompany some code. I feel relieved when I can rely on the LLM to write docs that I only need to edit and review. But I’m using LLMs regularly and I feel pretty effectively — including Opus 4.5 — and these “they can rewrite your entire codebase” assertions just seem crazy incongruous with my lived experience guiding LLMs to write even individual features bug-free.