The same way that having motorized farming equipment was a race to the bottom for farmers? Perhaps. Turned out to be a good outcome for most involved.

Just like farmers who couldn't cope with the additional leverage their equipment provided them, devs who can't leverage this technology will have to "go to the cities".

LOL what an argument.

Seeing the replies here it actually doesn't seem like everyone else can do this. Looks like a lot of people really suck at using LLMs to me.

> except for the fact that almost everyone else can do this, too. Or at least try to, resulting in a fast race to the bottom.

Ironically, that race to the bottom is no different then we already have. Have you already worked for a company before? A lot of software is developed, BADLY. I dare to say that a lot of software that Opus 4.5 generates, is often a higher quality then what i have seen in my 25 year carrier.

The amount of companies that cheapen out, hiring juniors fresh from school, to work as coding monkies is insane. Then projects have bugs / security issues, with tons of copy/pasted code, or people not knowing a darn thing.

Is that any different then your feared future? I dare to say, that LLms like Opus are frankly better then most juniors. As a junior to do a code review for security issues. Opus literally creates extensive tests, points out issues that you expect from a mid or higher level dev. Of course, you need to know to ask! You are the manager.

> Do you really want to be a middle manager to a bunch of text boxes, churning out slop, while they drive up our power bills and slowly terraform the planet?

Frankly, yes ... If you are a real developer, do you still think development is fun after 10 years, 20 years? Doing the exact same boring work. Reimplementing the 1001 login page, the 101 contact form ... A ton of our work is in reality repeating the same crap over and over again. And if we try to bypass it, we end up tied to tied to those systems / frameworks that often become a block around our necks.

Our industry has a lot of burnout because most tasks may start small but then grow beyond our scope. Todays its ruby on rails programming, then its angular, no wait, react, no wait, Vue, no wait, the new hotness is whatever again.

> slowly terraform the planet?

Well, i am actually making something.

Can you say the same for all the power / gpu draw with bitcoin, Ethereum whatever crap mining. One is productive, a tool with insane potential and usage, the other is a virtual currency where only one is ever popular with limited usage. Yet, it burns just as much for a way more limited return of usability.

Those LLMs that you are so against, make me a ton more productive. You wan to to try out something, but never really wanted to get committed because it was weeks of programming. Well, now you as manager, can get projects done fast. Learn from them way faster then your little fingers ever did.

I bet they weren't as valuable as you think. This is a common issue with certain high performing line delivery employees (particularly those with technical skills, programmers, lawyers, accountants, etc), they always think they are carrying the whole team/company on their shoulders. It almost never turns out to be the case. The machine will keep grinding.

That's one kind of stupidity. Actually firing the golden goose is one step further

I think we might make new jobs, but maybe not enough. I'll be pleasantly surprised if we get good at sharing wealth over the next few years. Maybe something like UBI will become so obviously necessary that it becomes politically feasible, I don't know. I suspect we'll probably limp along for awhile in mediocrity. Then we'll die. Same as it ever was. The important thing is to have fun with it.

Sharpen sticks, hoard water maybe? We were always going to die someday, I don't see how this changes things.

>And what do you even mean by "prepare"?

Not the person you're responding to but... if you think it's a horse -> car change (and, to stretch the metaphor, if you think you're in the business of building stables) then preparation means train in another profession.

If you think it's a hand tools -> power tools change, learn how to use the new tools so you don't get left behind.

My opinion is it's a hand -> power tools change, and that LLMs give me the power to solve more problems for clients, and do it faster and more predictably than a client trying to achieve the same with an LLM. I hope I'm right :-)