> I'd be shocked if the developer wasn't actually less productive

I agree 10x is a very large number and it's almost certainly smaller—maybe 1.5x would be reasonable. But really? You would be shocked if it was above 1.0x? This kind of comment always strikes me as so infantilizing and rude, to suggest that all these developers are actually slower with AI, but apparently completely oblivious to it and only you know better.

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llmslave2 3 days ago | parent [-]

I would never suggest that only I know better. Plenty of other people are observing the same thing, and there is also research backing it up.

Maybe shocked is the wrong term. Surprised, perhaps.

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marcellus23 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

There are simply so many counterexamples out there of people who have developed projects in a small fraction of the time it would take manually. Whether or not AI is having a positive effect on productivity on average in the industry is a valid question, but it's a statistical one. It's ridiculous to argue that AI has a negative effect on productivity in every single individual case.

	▲	llmslave2 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		It's all talk and no evidence.

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sarchertech 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

We’re seeing no external indicators of large productivity gains. Even assuming that productivity gains in large corporations are swallowed up by inefficiencies, you’d expect externally verifiable metrics to show a 2x or more increase in productivity among indie developers and small companies.

So far it’s just crickets.