I've been wondering when we will see general purpose consumer FPGAs, and eventually ASICs, for inference. This reminds me of bitcoin mining. Bitcoin mining started with GPUs. I think I remember a brief FPGA period that transitioned to ASIC. My limited understanding of Google's tensor processing unit chips are that they are effectively a transformer ASIC. That's likely a wild over-simplification of Google's TPU, but Gemini is proof that GPUs are not needed for inference.

I suspect GPU inference will come to an end soon, as it will likely be wildly inefficient by comparison to purpose built transformer chips. All those Nvidia GPU-based servers may become obsolete should transformer ASICs become mainstream. GPU bitcoin mining is just an absolute waste of money (cost of electricity) now. I believe the same will be true for GPU-based inference soon. The hundreds of billions of dollars being invested on GPU-based inference seems like an extremely risky bet that ASIC transformers won't happen, although Google has already widely deployed their own TPUs.

FPGAs will never rival gpus or TPUs for inference. The main reason is that GPUs aren't really gpus anymore. 50% of the die area or more is for fixed function matrix multiplication units and associated dedicated storage. This just isn't general purpose anymore. FPGAs cannot rival this with their configurable DSP slices. They would need dedicated systolic blocks, which they aren't getting. The closest thing is the versal ML tiles, and those are entire peoxessors, not FPGA blocks. Those have failed by being impossible to program.

This is a common misunderstanding from industry observers (not industry practitioners). Each generation of (NVIDIA) GPU is an ASIC with different ISA etc. Bitcoin mining simply was not important enough (last year, only $23B Bitcoin mined in total (at $100,000 per)). There is amped incentive to implement every possible instructions useful into GPU (without worrying about backward compatibility, thanks to PTX).

ASIC transformers won't happen (defined as a chip with single instruction to do sdpa from anything that is not broadly marketed as GPU, and won't have annualized sale more than $3B). Mark my word. I am happy to take a bet on longbets.org with anyone on this for $1000 and my part will go to PSF.

There are also CPU extensions like AVX512-VNNI and AVX512-BF16. Maybe the idea of communicating out to a card that holds your model will eventually go away. Inference is not too memory bandwidth hungry, right?

There was in the past. Google had Coral TPU and Intel the Neural Compute Stick (NCS). NCS is from 2018 so it's really outdated now. It was mainly oriented for edge computing so the flops was not comparable to desktop computer.

It all comes down to memory and fabric bandwidth. For example, the state of the art developer -friendly (PCIe 5.0) FPGA platform is Alveo V80 which rocks four 200G NIC's. Basically, Alveo currently occupies this niche where it's the only platform on the market to allow programmable in-network compute. However, what's available in terms of bandwidth—lags behind even pathetic platforms like Bluefield. Those in the know are aware of what challenges are there to actually saturate it for inference in practical designs. I think, Xilinx is super well-positioned here, but without some solid hard IP it's still a far cry from purpose silicon.