I think this is an open question still and very interesting. Ilya discussed this on the Dwarkesh podcast. But the capabilities of LLMs is clearly exponential and perhaps super exponential. We went from something that could string together incoherent text in 2022 to general models helping people like Terrance Tao and Scott Aaronson write new research papers. LLMs also beat IMO and the ICPC. We have entered the John Henry era for intellectual tasks...

> But the capabilities of LLMs is clearly exponential and perhaps super exponential

By what metric?