| ▲ | zahlman 3 hours ago | |
Making predictions is useful even when they turn out very wrong. Consider also giving confidence levels, so that you can calibrate going forward. | ||
| ▲ | jjude 16 minutes ago | parent [-] | |
I use predictions to prepare rather than to plan. Planing depends on deterministic view of the future. I used to plan (esp annual plans) until about 5 years. Now I scan for trends and prepare myself for different scenarios that can come in the future. Even if you get it approximately right, you stand apart. For tech trends, I read Simon, Benedict Evans, Mary Meeker etc. Simon is in a better position make these predictions than anyone else having closely analyzed these trends over the last few years. Here I wrote about my approach: https://www.jjude.com/shape-the-future/ | ||