Buffet's strategy assumes a rational market, so I wouldn't expect it to work as well in an environment where stock market valuations are increasingly vibes-based and often wildly inflated by circumstances that should be illegal (like selling X to xAI to generate a voodoo valuation).

Arguably the entire market is heavily overvalued now, though, so while his strategies are probably no longer optimal, they'll probably continue to work out well enough at least until the next big correction.

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abirch 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

“in the short run, the market is a voting machine… but in the long run, the market is a weighing machine.”

Ben Graham

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sporkxrocket 7 hours ago | parent [-]

It seems like something is broken since TSLA (for example) has been completely divorced from fundamentals since at least 2020. The richest man in the world has the vast majority of his net worth derived from vaporware and straight up fraud. Still wondering when the "weighing machine" kicks in.

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andrewaylett 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.

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abirch 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Unfortunately it's expensive to short Tesla because Elon and Peter Thiel don't allow their shares to be shorted. Add to that, it's part of the S&P 500. It's going to take a while but I foresee a lot of red for TSLA. We'll see what happens but TSLA is already revising their target of cars sold in Q4

	▲	bdangubic 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		investors have stopped looking at TSLA as a car company awhile ago so car sales will hardly move the price (downward)

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JumpCrisscross 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Buffet's strategy assumes a rational market

The public stuff, sure, in the short term. The wholly-owned stuff, however, is pure private equity: their cash flows should cash flow irrespective of financing conditions.

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jimnotgym 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Some people suggest this is a function of too much wealth centred in too few people, causing a high demand for assets. If that is true, maybe that is where we should focus?

	▲	bayarearefugee 7 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Massive wealth inequality is certainly a factor, not just in this but the associated affordability situation being faced by the group of people whose wealth isn't being buoyed by the stock market. But I don't know what we can do about it when government has been captured by people with vested interests in not fixing anything. It feels like things have to get bad enough to get people to actually rise up. Not like, revolution or anything, but real protest (and enough political awakening to understand that they are being fed culture war bullshit to distract them from the class war they should be waging).