| ▲ | ravenstine 7 hours ago |
| I wonder how this will affect BRK-B, given that so many investors (or at least the "retail " ones) buy its shares with the assumption that they provide exposure to Buffett's strategy. In any case, I hope Warren can experience not working at all in the few years he likely has left after being alive for over 1/3 of his country's existence! |
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| ▲ | Cheezmeister 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| I don't know the guy, but by all indications he is even-keeled, low-stress, conscientious but come what may. Given his nationality and net-worth, I'd wager that Warren is a centenarian in waiting, unless and until he chooses to invest in the afterlife. Whichever comes first. Respect. |
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| ▲ | paxys 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| BRK is now (since the last 10-20 years) large and diversified enough that it more or less tracks the S&P 500 and the overall stock market. There isn't some genius trading strategy in there. Buffett himself tells everyone who will listen to buy and hold a diversified index fund for a long period of time. |
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| ▲ | zeroonetwothree 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | BRK and VOO have a correlation of 0.7 over the past 5 years. That's high enough that they have been relatively similar, but not so high that I would really say it "tracks" it. Of course, no one knows the future so who knows if this will continue. | | | |
| ▲ | phil21 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | BRK is like a conservative S&P500. It offers enough diversification off the "total market" funds for me that I invest a small but material portion of my "safe money" with them. Sort of like holding boring dividend stocks without the dividend. | | |
| ▲ | jart 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | BRK has a beta of 0.7 (meaning it's less volatile than the market) because a third of it is just cash (probably because they want to buy the blood in the next crash like they did in 2000) so I'm curious why you wouldn't just keep that part of your portfolio in cash like he does? Now me personally I think that strategy is kind of dated because the dollar has lost 39% of its value over the last twelve months because it's only as good as the blood sweat and tears of the people who mint it. Dividend stocks like Heinz aren't good investments these days either, since as far as I can tell, those dividends have been coming straight out of the stock's value. Even Buffett turned his back on them. A tidal wave has been rolling through this country sweeping away everyone who follows the safe socially sanctioned wisdom about investing. | | |
| ▲ | phil21 an hour ago | parent [-] | | Mostly because I don't trust myself to push cash into the market when there is blood on the streets. Or really ever, for that matter. Both due to thinking "everything is still overvalued" as well as decision paralysis even when/if I do feel the time is generally right. I'm generally overly conservative, so this is somewhat of a middle ground. Along the lines of the best diet is the one you can consistently stick with, not necessarily the most theoretically optimal one. Same goes with investing for me. I intellectually understand it's likely a worse bet than just dumping 100% into VTI or whatnot, but investing isn't simply a mathematical game - at least in my case. > A tidal wave has been rolling through this country sweeping away everyone who follows the safe socially sanctioned wisdom about investing. Agreed. I'd be retired now if I would have been able to shake the conventional wisdom in this area and just YOLO'ed it. | | |
| ▲ | jart an hour ago | parent [-] | | Math is only useful when you apply it to something that has value, like knowledge. Warren Buffett got it by reading balance sheets all day. He'd see through all the smooth talking and marketing because of it. One of the things that makes the system broken these days is no one has time to do what he did. People just park their money in passive funds like VTI. I'd be surprised if even Vanguard read these companies balance sheets. Although I know the fund managers care a lot about environment social governance. |
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| ▲ | tim333 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Berkshire's cash holdings are pretty different from an S&P 500 index fund. |
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| ▲ | user3939382 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Last I heard he had a couple guys working for him who sound extremely smart and explained it’s almost impossible to beat the S&P but they try. |
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| ▲ | scotty79 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| There's no Buffett's strategy. Market buys whatever Buffett's company bought. That's how he got unusual gains. Moment of fame stretched over 60 year of clipping coupons off of that initial fame. The thing that made it possible was that he was content with his performance and never tried to one up himself. He kept his fame and market interest in him simmering over six decades inatead burning out in one bright flash. |
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| ▲ | enjeyw 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I used to share a somewhat similar sentiment. I know one anecdote is not data, but his investment in BYD all the way back in 2008 does counter that viewpoint somewhat - his investment success in the BYD case isn’t from other investors following him in, it’s from him identifying BYD as a successful company far before any other major investors did. | | |
| ▲ | tim333 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Minor nit - it was Charlie Munger who identified and argued for BYD. |
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| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > There's no Buffett's strategy There is and it’s found in float, leverage and low-volatility assets [1]. If you look at what he does, that becomes clear. If you only pay attention to how people talk about him on the internet, you’ll be misled into seeing trend following. [1] https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w19681/w196... | |
| ▲ | tim333 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | That doesn't explain how he did well before people had heard of him. Also if you read his letters he talks about his strategy and it's not that. | |
| ▲ | irishcoffee 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > There's no Buffett's strategy. Market buys whatever Buffett's company bought. That's how he got unusual gains. That sure does trivialize him. If that was your goal, you nailed it. I personally don’t think that’s a fair take, but I’ve no interest in trying to change your mind. | | |
| ▲ | tommy92 an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Yes its the typical attitude than gives HN users a bad name. And this particular comment doesn't seem to have done beyond surface level research either on his investment works. Maybe not even surface level. Too much confidence too little works just empty words. | |
| ▲ | scotty79 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > That sure does trivialize him. If that was your goal, you nailed it. Pretty much. I'm always interested what's left once I reject te ususal narratives that people keep repeating to each other. I find this kind of excercise insightful and satisfying. While in every working thing there's myriad of significant details, the main engine of operation is usually just one usually quite straightforward thing. I like making attempts at recognizing those main things. I'm sometimes wrong but even when I am I find satisfaction that I tried instead just repeating some selection of what other people said. |
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