I‘m aware this means leaving the original topic of this thread, but would you mind giving us a rundown of this whole Japan 1989 thing? I would love to read a first-person account.

I am honored to receive a question from a fellow "Craftsman" (I assume from your name).

To be honest, in 1989, I was just a child. I didn't drink the champagne. But as a banker today, I am the one cleaning up the broken glass. So I can tell you about 1989 from the perspective of a "Survivor's Loan Officer."

I see two realities every day.

One is the "Zombie" companies. Many SMEs here still list Golf Club Memberships on their books at 1989 prices. Today, they are worth maybe 1/20th of that value. Technically, these companies are insolvent, but they keep the "Ghost of 1989" on the books, hoping to one day write it off as a tax loss. It is a lie that has lasted 30 years.

But the real estate is even worse. I often visit apartment buildings built during the bubble. They are decaying, and tenants have fled to newer, modern buildings. The owner cannot sell the land because demolition costs hundreds of thousands of dollars—more than the land is worth.

The owner is now 70 years old. His family has drifted apart. He lives alone in one of the empty units, acting as the caretaker of his own ruin.

The bubble isn't just a graph in a history book. It is an old man trapped in a concrete box he built with "easy money." That is why I fear the "Cash Burn" of AI. When the fuel runs out, the wreckage doesn't just disappear. Someone has to live in it.