OpenAI isn't a publicly-traded company though, how will it going to zero affect the stock market?

KaiserPro 10 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Its about "animal spirits"

The stock market isn't rational, its a room full of people talking loudly, and moving to various tables.

All it takes is someone outside the room to shout something that triggers panic, and most of the people in the room will run for the exit.

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johnnyanmac 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

OpenAI collapses and MSFT tanks. Microsoft shareholders aren't quite that dumb.

And that's ignoring the dominoes of other AI firms being pulled out of because OpenAi falters.

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OGEnthusiast 7 hours ago | parent [-]

> Microsoft shareholders aren't quite that dumb.

If they aren't dumb, why are they investing in MSFT now then if it's a bubble that's doomed to fail? And even in the worst case scenario, a 10-15% decline in the S&P 500 won't trigger the next Great Depression. (Keep in mind that we already had a ~20% drawdown in public equities during the interest rate hikes of 2022/2023 and the economy remained pretty robust throughout.)

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johnnyanmac 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Like I said, they aren't "that" dumb. They are playing a risky game, but when they see the number go down rapidly they will pull. Which will make the line go down even faster.

>And even in the worst case scenario, a 10-15% decline in the S&P 500 won't trigger the next Great Depression

Only if you believe the 10% decline won't domino and that the S&P500 is secluded from the rest of the global economy. I wish I shared your optimism.

> and the economy remained pretty robust throughout.

Yeah and we voted the person who orchestrated that out. We don't have the money to pump trillions back in a 2nd time in such a short time. Something's gonna give, and soon.

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OGEnthusiast 7 hours ago | parent [-]

> Only if you believe the 10% decline won't domino and that the S&P500 is secluded from the rest of the global economy. I wish I shared your optimism.

So your hypothesis is that a 10% decline in the S&P 500 will trigger the next Great Depression, i.e. years of negative GDP growth and unemployment? I agree that it could cause a slight economic slowdown, but I don't think AI and tech stocks are a large enough part of the economy to cause a Great Depression-style catastrophe.

	▲	johnnyanmac 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		>So your hypothesis is that a 10% decline in the S&P 500 will trigger the next Great Depression, i.e. years of negative GDP growth and unemployment? Yup. I won't say it's the only factor, nor biggest. But I'm focusing on this topic and not 40+ years of government economic abandonment of the working class. It's the straw that will break the camel's back.