It has delivered a better ROI in the same way a ponzi scheme can deliver higher ROI.

> It has delivered a better ROI in the same way a ponzi scheme can deliver higher ROI.

It sounds like you're arguing that high valuation compared to fundamentals means buyers expect gains from future buyers paying more sounds like a Ponzi, but it isn't, it is speculation.

The comparison doesn't make sense. Some surface features of speculative markets can look Ponzi-like, but the underlying mechanics are very different.

A Ponzi-scheme returns to earlier participants directly from money contributed by later participants, with no real underlying business generating value. In a Ponzi-scheme, there is no real product (or it is irrelevant), the operator controls payouts, and investors are promised steady or guaranteed returns. None of that applies to Tesla stock.

Ponzi-schemes hide losses, smooth returns, collapse suddenly. Tesla stock is volatile, has had large drawdowns, and public reflects bad news, margin compression, demand shifts. Volatility is a sign of a market, not a Ponzi.

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boroboro4 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Mechanics is exactly the same - it's not Tesla revenues driving returns for investors, it's new investors putting their money into the stock at very high price.

	▲	andsoitis an hour ago \| parent [-]
		If you believe Tesla is a Ponzi scheme then you also believe that the SEC is either knowingly keeping a Ponzi scheme going (and it is getting included in indexes) OR the SEC doesn’t know OR you are wrong.

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knuppar 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> collapse suddenly

If BYD was in the US I think we could check this box reeeeaaally quickly. It would make Tesla irrelevant.

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awesome_dude 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

We have BYD here, it's a stiff competitor for Tesla, but it's not end game for Tesla material.

I personally prefer a BYD, Musk has damaged his brand by being so political, but the BYD product is (IMO) superior.

Having said that BYD isnt without its issues (eg. over reporting of range)

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andsoitis 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> If BYD was in the US I think we could check this box reeeeaaally quickly. It would make Tesla irrelevant.

Why? What's your logic?

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array_key_first 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The cars are higher quality and, more importantly, cheaper. US manufacturers can't make a cheap car to save their lives. The average age of cars on US roads is now 13 years, nobody can afford new cars.

There's a huge market opportunity here that all our manufacturers are missing, seemingly on purpose. BYD, and others, would absolutely sweep the competition.

	▲	overfeed an hour ago \| parent [-]
		> US manufacturers can't make a cheap car to save their lives. They have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to never make low-margin (read "cheap") cars. If someone is looking for a competitive automotive market, they won't find it in the US. The financial engineering is world-class though.

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vkou 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

BYD makes good, cheap cars. There's a reason why the US raised every protectionist barrier against it - it would destroy Detroit.

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majormajor 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> In a Ponzi-scheme, there is no real product (or it is irrelevant)

This part is the smell.

"It's not a car company, it's a AI/Robot/whatever company." The valuation is supposedly justified by a future product that perpetually fails to materialize.

It's obviously not a classical Ponzi scheme in the mechanical sense where payouts are controlled by a central party. It has major Ponzi vibes though, with new money continuing to reward old money even though the fundamentals and products haven't done anything to justify that continued influx - only the hype has.

	▲	stingraycharles 3 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Yeah, the target keeps moving. Earlier it was “it’s not a car company, it’s a battery company”. Then it was all about FSD and robotaxis. Now that that is not working out, it’s going to be a robot company. The actual underlying product, the cars, don’t match the crazy valuation.
	▲	andsoitis an hour ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Ponzi schemes don’t make $100B revenue, traded on the stock exchange, or make profit.