> The improvements to programming (IME) haven’t come from improved models, they’ve come from agents, tooling, and environment integrations.

I disagree. This almost entirely model capability increases. I've stated this elsewhere: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46362342

Improved tooling/agent scaffolds, whatever, are symptoms of improved model capabilities, not the cause of better capabilities. You put a 2023-era model such as GPT-4 or even e.g. a 2024-era model such as Sonnet 3.5 in today's tooling and they would crash and burn.

The scaffolding and tooling for these models have been tried ever since GPT-3 came out in 2020 in different forms and prototypes. The only reason they're taking off in 2025 is that models are finally capable enough to use them.