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roughly 10 hours ago

The absolute best case I can make for this:

I think it’s pretty obvious at this point that Nvidia’s architecture has reached scaling limits - the power demands of their latest chips has Microsoft investing in nuclear fusion. Similar to Intel in both the pre-Core days and their more recent chips, they need an actual new architecture to move forward. As sits, there’s no path to profitability for the buyers of these chips given the cost and capabilities of the current LLM architectures, and this is obvious enough that even Nvidia has to realize it’s existential for them.

If Groq’s architecture can actually change the economics of inference and training sufficient to bring the costs in line with the actual, not speculative, benefits of LLMs, this may not be a buy-and-kill for Nvidia but something closer to Apple’s acquisition of P.A. Semi, which made the A- and M- class chips possible.

(Mind you, in Intel’s case they had to have their clocks cleaned by AMD a couple times to get them to see, but I think we’re further past the point of diminishing returns with Nvidia - I think they’re far enough past when the economics turned against them that Reality is their competition now.)

jvanderbot 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

NVIDIA and "no path to profitability" don't belong in the same zip code.

jonah 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I read it as path to profitability for the AI companies buying Nvidia's chips.

roughly 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

No path to profitability for the people using their products for their putative purpose, which seems like it might affect Nvidia’s bottom line at some point. Clarified.

wmf 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

there’s no path to profitability for the buyers of these chips given the cost and capabilities of the current LLM architectures

Didn't Anthropic say inference is already profitable?

roughly 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Presuming that’s why they raised 3 times this year.

shwaj 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Inference being profitable doesn’t mean that they’re selling enough inference to offset their other costs.