> In 2010 the typical consumer PC had 2-4gb of RAM. Now the typical PC has 12-16gb. This suggests RAM size doubling perhaps every 5 years at best. If that's the case, we're 25-30 years away from the typical PC having enough RAM to run Kimi K2.

Part of the reason that RAM isn't growing faster is that there's no need for that much RAM at the moment. Technically you can put multiple TB of RAM in your machine, but no-one does that because it's a complete waste of money [0]. Unless you're working in a specialist field 16Gb of RAM is enough, and adding more doesn't make anything noticeably faster.

But given a decent use-case, like running an LLM locally, and you'd find demand for lots more RAM, and that would drive supply, and new technology developments, and in ten years it'll be normal to have 128TB of RAM in a baseline laptop.

Of course, that does require that there is a decent use-case for running an LLM locally, and your point that that is not necessarily true is well-made. I guess we'll find out.

[0] apart from a friend of mine working on crypto who had a desktop Linux box with 4TB of RAM in it.