| ▲ | YJfcboaDaJRDw 4 hours ago | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Certainly but US policy changes every 4 years and China has a gigantic one child policy issue which just can't be changed. I think it will with China somewhat similar how it was back in the day with the udssr where economists were predicting its economy would outgrow the economy of the USA by 1994 and then 1991 or so it died. Could imagine something similar might be awaiting china | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | A_D_E_P_T 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Despite China's fertility rate plummeting to 1.09, the country has a demographic cushion that will carry it through mid-century without serious economic consequences. China's "Alpha" generation (currently ages 6-16) is a large demographic echo of its massive Baby Boom, and will stabilize the workforce through the 2020s and keep the dependency ratio favorable until at least 2030. China's dependency ratio won't surpass America's until the mid-2040s. Two straightforward policy levers -- raising the retirement age from 50-60 to 65 and dramatically increasing college enrollment (already jumped from 26.5% to 60.2% since 2010) -- will offset all effects of gradual aging over the next 25 years. Real demographic strain won't materialize until post-2050 when the large Millennial generation retires without a comparable replacement cohort. The idea that demographics will erode China's competitive position in the next two decades is overblown. If you want to talk demographics, there are a lot of places that are way worse off than China. Obviously there are the usual suspects, S.Korea and Japan, but also Germany, Italy, and Spain. (Europe's largest economies, France aside... and I'm not so sure about France!) All of them have demographic situations that are far worse than China's, unless you genuinely subscribe to the notion that they can somehow be fixed via mass immigration from third-world countries. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | piva00 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The USSR didn't have the advantage of getting all the manufacturing supply chains in its soil funded by customers of the products it produced. If there's one thing China learnt from the USSR was on how to be part of the globalisation push, and get as an advantageous of a position as they possibly could, in that the CCP has been very successful. We will see if the shift to more authoritarianism from Xi will unwind that but China's future, with all its issues, is starting to look brighter than whatever the USA has become. Perhaps limiting the influence of the finance industry has a much better long-term prospect, it's very much one of the major flaws of the American system leading from the 1980s. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | nneonneo 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
China no longer has a one-child policy and is now actively focusing policies and incentives on increasing childbirth. Although it’s not going to yield immediate results, the PRC operates on long time horizons and will probably succeed long-term in raising birth rates. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▲ | 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▲ | viccis 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
>China has a gigantic one child policy issue which just can't be changed ...the one that was changed a decade ago? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▲ | riskeet 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
??? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||