> I feel the 2027 predictions have been shown to be pretty wrong so far

Does your clairvoyance go any further than 2027?

I don't know that it's "clairvoyance". We're two weeks from 2026. We might be able to see somewhat more than we do now if this was going to turn into AGI by 2027.

If you assume that we're only one breakthrough away (or zero breakthroughs - just need to train harder), then the step could happen any time. If we're more than one away, though, then where are they? Are they all going to happen in the next two years?

But everybody's guessing. We don't know right now whether AGI is possible at current hardware levels. If it is N breakthroughs away, we all have our own guesses of approximately what N is.

My guess is that we are more than one breakthrough away. Therefore, one can look at the current state of affairs and say that we are unlikely to get to AGI by 2027.

> Does your clairvoyance go any further than 2027?

why are you so sensitive?