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notepad0x90 17 hours ago

Good for them, I don't see this as a big deal other than my fear of west china invading china (taiwan! :) ).

Don't get me wrong, I want the west to succeed, but a competition from China is exactly what is needed. They're building datacenters in arizona and india for TSMC because of this competition.

I really hope we get past historical political rivalry and get along with China better. Competition is good, hostility sucks.

jjcc 6 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Give you some more historical context: China (ROC) planned to invade west China until the plan was given up in 60's. Both sides want reunification by force. When China's navy and air force was superior in early 1950's, it tried to "establish blockade of trade with west China (PRC) along the Chinese coast" (1)

China eventually gave up the plan in 1960's not because it didn't want to but because the balance of the power weighting over to west China. In 80's and 90's both agree to make peace given the premise that both sides belong to China.

TSMC was a product of industry policy from None-democratic China government. The founder Charles Chang , an American born in the west China ,never visited China before 50 years old.

Both China (before 90') and west China want to reunite , by force or not. The motivation has little to do chip although US thought that's the critical incentive. West China will still let TSMC provide the chip to the world in case it successfully invaded China in my view.

1.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_the_Tuapse

mywittyname 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> get along with China better.

This will probably never happen. All countries are rivals, and the semblance of cooperation is really just the manifestation of a power imbalance.

China grew into their big boy pants and can hold their own on the international stage. They have no need to be cooperative because they are in the International Superpower Club. Their strategic ambitions do not align with those of their rivals, and they are strong enough to not need to play nice anymore.

Now that the US has also dropped their visage of being the benevolent world leader, there's even less reason for China to pretend to be cooperative. At this point, it's a matter of who is more apt to invade your country, US or China? And you buy weapons from the other one.

Maybe we see more "cooperation" between China and the EU or South America. But that will be entirely because those regions are under duress.

subw00f 13 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Yeah, all those countries China has invaded really shows how apt they are to do that.

lanthissa 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

yeah they really shouldn't be blockading their neighbors while claiming every country around them is their sphere of influence and openly interfering in their allies domestic politics while leveraging their size to force other countries to accept asymmetric economic deals...

DasIch 2 hours ago | parent [-]

How is this different from what the US is doing? See Monroe Doctrine for example and recent events concerning Venezuela?

energy123 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Please spare us. China invaded Vietnam to protect Pol Pot while he was mass killing millions of innocent civilians. They have territorial disputes with over 10 countries, which they've been unable to decisively act on because those neighbors either have nukes (India) or are protected by a more powerful country (US). Not because their government is some benevolent entity. They're basically an authoritarian dictatorship that's kind of cornered at the moment (like Saddam after the Gulf War) but would kill a bunch of people and expand if the US wasn't around.

spaceman_2020 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

China has resolved a lot of its border disputes already. The border disputes with Kazakhstan, Krgyzstan, Laos, Mongolia, Nepal, North Korea, Russia, Vietnam, Tajikstan have all been resolved

throwaway290 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

They do it in the sea already. Just look at that nine dash line...

kulahan 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You don’t think NZ and Aus are truly good friends?

throwaway290 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

For all the talk about how they are an equal player on the international stage PRC is still a developing country by their own assessment and WTO.

energy123 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> I don't see this as a big deal other than my fear of west china invading china (taiwan! :) ).

Isn't that "other than" clause a big deal, though? I've read a survey and a number of articles from defense and foreign policy types, and the general feeling is there's a ~25% chance that China will invade Taiwan this decade. That's really damn big. If there's rollback in Taiwan then the first island chain could plausibly fall, or if not you will surely see Japan and maybe South Korea nuclearize. Why must we keep assuming the best with these security calculations instead of believing someone when they keep saying what they're going to do?

standardUser 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The more China advances domestically, especially in this area, the less it has to gain from invading Taiwan. China is getting to the point where the conquest is finally doable (rapidly advancing and massive military, plus a weak US president), but the potential gains are diminishing year to year.

I'd speculate that if they don't invade during Trump's term, they never will, and will pursue a different course down the road. China is nothing if not patient.

wahern 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The motivation to invade Taiwan is rooted in the PRC's political and historical narrative about it's legitimacy and purpose, a narrative internalized by most Chinese, including especially the military. It's in a sense existential, not economic or realpolitik, and I don't see that motivation diminishing anytime soon. If anything it's growing stronger, as evidenced by the suppression in Hong Kong, which made zero sense without reference to how Chinese political institutions sustain themselves. The risk of an invasion sparking a conflict with the US is primarily what held them back, and at best economic and foreign strategic pain only secondarily, but all those risks diminish by the day, leaving China's raw existential motivation unchecked.

spaceman_2020 11 hours ago | parent [-]

The biggest victory for CCP will be Taiwan willingly joining PRC. Nothing else will be a better testament to the CCP model

Reunification with the mainland isn’t a completely unpopular idea in Taiwan. The economic ties are already extremely deep (largest trading partner by far).

dluan 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Reunification in Taiwan has nothing to do with chips, and militarily PRC was able to do so a long time ago. The political will in PRC to "kill other Chinese" is zero.

woctordho 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Their is always a political will in China to kill other Chinese since thousands of years ago. This works vastly different from the western humanitarian philosophy.

energy123 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> The political will in PRC to "kill other Chinese" is zero.

Counts for nothing, these narratives are built on sand. Russians also saw Ukrainians as "brothers", as did South/North Koreans before the war, among countless other examples.

konart an hour ago | parent [-]

>Russians also saw

"see". Many people in Russia view this war as a civil one.

TiredOfLife 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Is that's why China has started building loads of troop transport ships recently? To peacefully transport them to Taiwan?

KylerAce 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Invading Taiwan isn't about chips at all, and in fact chips are actively disincentivizing invasion. Semiconductor fabs and the oodles of atomically precise ultra clean and ultra expensive equipment inside absolutely do not mix well with bombs.