As a math guy who loves reality tv, I was also drawn to the show and wrote a blog post [0] about how to programmatically calculate the probabilities as the show progresses. It was a lot of fun optimizing it to be performant. You can `pip install ayto` to use it to follow along with the show or try out scenarios.

The linked post is a very thorough treatment of AYTO and a great read. I really like the "guess who" bit on how to maximize the value of guesses. It's a shame the participants aren't allowed to have pen and paper—it makes optimization a lot trickier! I'm impressed they do as well as they do.

[0]: https://danturkel.com/2023/01/25/math-code-are-you-the-one.h...

Let's be friends :')

Loved your post, really enjoyed getting into the meat of it. I wanted to position mine to a layman, kept asking myself "can I explain this to my Dad?"

I think where the post falls short is the absence of a silver bullet that contestants can use to win the game sooner.

And sometimes they just don't do better as a plot point, staying together an extra week after finding out they are not the one because of the intensity of their love (they met 4 days before)