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neilgsmith 2 days ago

I’ve been working on "Next Arc Research" — https://nextarcresearch.com - a wrapper around my curiosity to understand how AI, compute, and capital might change markets by 2030.

It’s not a trading tool or product. More like a weekly, machine-assisted research project. Each cycle I run analyses on 120+ public companies across semiconductors, cloud, biotech, energy, robotics, quantum and crypto. The framing is inspired by Emad Mostaque’s “The Last Economy” thesis — the idea that when intelligence becomes cheap, the physics of value creation start to look very different. I originally built it for myself and retail investors in my family but I figure it could have more general utility so prettied it up a bit.

The system uses large-model reasoning (GPT-5+ though I've also tested Sonnet, Gemini and Grok) combined with structured scoring across technology maturity, risk, competitive positioning, and alignment to AI-era dynamics. The output is static HTML dashboards, PDFs, and CSVs that track month-over-month shifts. I'm adding to it weekly.

Mostly I’m trying to answer questions like:

* Which companies are structurally positioned for outsized upside in The Last Economy?

* How should I deliver the research so that it would have been actionable to someone like me 30 years ago?

* What signals would help folks identify “the next NVIDIA” 5 years earlier?

The inference costs real $$$ so I've set up a Patreon that, hopefully, will allow me to scale coverage and extend the modelling and methodology. There is a free tier and some recent, complete example output on the web site. I'm also happy to gift a free month for folks willing to provide constructive feedback: https://www.patreon.com/NextArcResearch/redeem/CC2A2 - in particular I'm looking for feedback on how to make the research more actionable without drifting into "financial advice".

I don't collect any data but Patreon does for authentication and Cloudflare does to deliver Pages. The Last Economy is here: https://ii.inc/web/the-last-economy